Another round of fortune! RMB or the worst assets in the next ten years

Home / Another round of fortune! RMB or the worst assets in the next ten years

Another round of fortune! RMB or the worst assets in the next ten years? After the crash, the market died down, the market once again shocked! Even the day against the dollar continues to weaken, a record low was continually refresh! In October 24th, the Bank of RMB against the U.S. dollar fell 119 basis points to 6.7718, continue to refresh the lowest point in more than 6 years, intraday decline since 6.7770, the National Day has reached 1013 points, the highest since August last year, the biggest monthly decline. The middle of the day down 132 basis points, at 6.7690, a record low of 6 years. Offshore RMB against the U.S. dollar fell 200 points at 6.7854, below the previous record low of 6.7850, a record low, since the national day decline has exceeded 1000 points, the largest monthly decline since last December. Some institutions are expected, the dollar index is expected to stand on the 100, although the market has been ahead of the impact of the exchange, but in 2017 the RMB or re depreciated by 5%. Why the devaluation of the RMB so powerful? Industry analysis is as follows: 1, since 2016 of January, the RMB exchange rate mechanism has changed, the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism is expected to depreciate against the u.s.. Foreign exchange market is difficult to change the situation of supply and demand, according to market supply and demand to determine the RMB exchange rate against the U.S. dollar will depreciate, the specific performance of the closing price for each trading day than the depreciation of the central parity. 2, in the long run, determine its purchasing power of money is the national credit endorsement (economic strength, government credit), but in the short term, domestic asset price bubbles (stocks, bonds, building) is a major source of exchange rate depreciation. 3, on the bond market, China’s long end interest rate as long as the decline continues to decline or spreads continue to narrow, then the exchange rate will continue to pressure, because the rapid decline in domestic asset returns after the rapid decline in the attractiveness of the capital. 4, the property market, housing prices higher, forcing residents and businesses to leave Chinese, people choose real immigrants or direct overseas enterprises due to cost rise too fast have invested overseas transfer capacity. 5, on the stock market, one or two domestic market valuation is high, the more money for dollars to high power money overseas acquisitions to underestimate the value of enterprises. 6, this round of devaluation, largely due to fluctuations in the international exchange market. Last week, including the euro, yen and dollar depreciate in succession, which is three in the dollar index basket in the proportion reached 57.6%, 13.6%, 9.1%, thus boost the dollar index to new highs, and ultimately affect the RMB exchange rate. Where is the RMB iron base? What do the big brothers say? UBS China: the current round of devaluation is unlikely to break through 6.8 although export growth in September was lower than expected, but is not expected to make use of the RMB devaluation to stimulate exports and growth in the short term. From the outside, we believe that the role of the dollar rate hike is a boundary, the influence degree is unlikely to exceed the first rate hike, the dollar is likely to have entered the final stage for ". From the inside, the exchange rate will get some support, the current round of devaluation is unlikely to break through 6.8. Shen Wanhongyuan: next year continue to weaken 5% inertia! We believe that the dollar index will advance up to 100, and even do not have to wait until the interest rate hike that day. Market for the Federal Reserve 12.相关的主题文章: