Palm oil market three bad surfaced-www.s9797s.com

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The palm oil market three big bad surfaced later trend is facing greater pressure Chinese after the Spring Festival, the Malaysia derivatives exchange (BMD) crude palm oil futures falling trend, as of now, the cumulative decline of about 5%. The author thinks that, at present, the palm oil market is facing three major negative factors: one is the recent rainfall will help ease the drought caused by El Nino to Southeast Asia, the market finally began to realize that palm oil production is growing; two is to increase the supply of the South American soybean soybean oil fell risk increases, soybean oil and palm oil price difference will be reduced, resulting in edible oil substitute for palm oil increased gradually; three of crude oil fell sharply the palm oil industry consumption decline. The adverse effects of El Nino on yield is weakening the U.S. Department of agriculture data show that 2015 global palm oil production is expected to 6222 million tons, 6143 million tons last year compared with a slight increase of 1.3%. Among them, Indonesia palm oil production is expected to be 33 million tons, with the previous year output is flat; Malaysia production is expected to be 20 million tons, higher than the previous year’s 19 million 880 thousand tons. The market is generally expected in 2016 the global palm oil production growth will slow down the pace, but the recent rainfall will bring to ease the drought in Southeast Asia to El nino. Southern Malaysia Palm Oil Mills Association (SPPOMA) data show that the first 20 days of February, Malaysia palm oil production increased by 2.6% compared to the same period in January. Demand has declined as production has increased unexpectedly. Palm oil and palm kernel oil exports in January reached 2 million 100 thousand tons, down 16.3% from, according to data from the Indonesian palm oil association. Indonesia’s palm oil buyers — China and India have reduced procurement scale: in January the export volume of Chinese Indonesia palm oil 275600 tons, 56% lower than the ring of India; palm oil exports to 383650 tons, 15% lower than the ring. According to ITS data from the shipping survey agency, in from February 1st to 20th, palm oil exports in Malaysia were 594944 tons, a decrease of 10.8%. Crude oil downturn has reduced the palm oil industry consumption, palm oil industry consumption mainly from the downstream bio diesel. Palm oil for the rise of bio fuel production, the downstream production of crude oil to form a certain substitution, the linkage between the two therefore further enhance. Oil prices have plummeted by 70% over the past 20 months from a high of $100, and the decline has not stopped. The author analyzes that the current oversupply of crude oil market environment is difficult to change in the short term. Although oil exporting countries, Russia and Saudi Arabia agreed to freeze production in February 16th, they said the agreement would depend on whether other oil producers would join. Iran welcomes the above freeze production plan, but has no commitment to participate in the plan. Iraq has no commitment to participate. In February 23rd, Naimi, Saudi Arabia’s oil minister, made it clear that the output freeze was not a harbinger of output reduction, insisting that the Saudi Arabia would not reduce production. Therefore, the author expects most of the world’s crude oil supply surplus will continue in 2016. In the above case, the price difference between palm oil and crude oil expansion.

棕榈油市场三大利空浮出水面   后期走势面临较大压力      中国春节过后,马来西亚衍生品交易所(BMD)毛棕榈油期货出现连续下跌走势,截至目前,累计跌幅约为5%。笔者认为,当前,棕榈油市场面临三大利空因素:一是最近的降雨有助于缓解厄尔尼诺给东南亚地区带来的干旱,市场终于开始意识到棕榈油产量正在增长;二是南美大豆供应增加使得豆油下跌风险增大,豆油与棕榈油价差将缩小,从而导致豆油对棕榈油的食用替代逐渐增大;三是原油大幅下跌使得棕榈油工业消费下降。   厄尔尼诺对产量的不利影响正在减弱   美国农业部数据显示,2015年全球棕榈油产量预计为6222万吨,较上年的6143万吨微幅增长1.3%。其中,印尼棕榈油产量预计为3300万吨,与上年产量持平;马来西亚产量预计为2000万吨,高于上年的1988万吨。市场普遍预期2016年全球棕榈油产量增长将步伐放慢,但是最近的降雨有助于缓解厄尔尼诺给东南亚地区带来的干旱。马来西亚南部棕榈油加工商协会(SPPOMA)的数据显示,2月前20天,马来西亚棕榈油产量比1月同期提高2.6%。   在产量意外增长的同时,需求出现下降迹象。印尼棕榈油协会(GAPKI)的数据显示,1月棕榈油和棕榈仁油出口量达到210万吨,环比降低16.3%。印尼棕榈油的大买家――中国和印度都缩减了采购规模:1月印尼对中国的棕榈油出口量在275600吨,环比降低56%;对印度棕榈油出口量在383650吨,环比降低15%。据船运调查机构ITS的数据,2月1日至20日,马来西亚棕榈油出口量为594944吨,环比减少10.8%。   原油低迷降低了棕榈油的工业消费   棕榈油工业消费主要来自下游的生物柴油。棕榈油因生物燃料生产兴起,对原油下游产出品形成一定的替代作用,两者联动性因此进一步提升。油价在过去20个月内,从高位100美元 桶之上暴跌70%,且跌势仍没有停止。笔者分析,当前原油市场供应过剩的大环境在短期内很难改变。尽管石油出口大国俄罗斯和沙特阿拉伯于2月16日同意冻结产量,但表示协议还要看其他产油国是否愿意加入。伊朗欢迎上述冻产计划,但没有承诺参与计划。伊拉克也没有承诺参与。2月23日,沙特石油部长纳伊米明确表示产量冻结并不是减产的先兆,坚称沙特不会减产。因此,笔者预计2016年大部分时间全球原油供应过剩的情况将持续。   在上述情况下,棕榈油与原油扩大化的价差将长时间存在,从而导致棕榈油在工业消费中用量下降,这不利于棕榈油去库存化进程。据马来西亚棕榈油局(MPOB)发布的月度数据,1月底马来西亚棕榈油库存为231万吨,虽然比2015年12月底的库存263万吨减少12.38%,但依然接近历史高位,是2013年以来的同期最高水平。    豆油对棕榈油的食用替代会逐渐增大   棕榈油和豆油作为油脂市场主要消费品种,具有一定的替代性,价格长期具有趋同性。目前南美大豆收获前景乐观,全球油籽供应庞大。美国农业部在2月供需报告里将全球大豆库存量上调110万吨,达到8040万吨,为创纪录水平,年比增加4.5%。从现阶段的大豆销售情况来看,一方面巴西大豆收获工作进展快速,巴西农户利用国内豆价高企的机会出售大豆,新豆供应非常充足;另一方面阿根廷去年12月14日宣布取消谷物出口关税以及下调大豆出口关税,市场预期其谷物出口会逐步提高。全球大豆供应充裕令大豆价格下跌风险增大,豆油对于海外买家更有吸引力。   事实上,从食用方面比较,豆油相对棕榈油有着天然的优势,在多数情况下,棕榈油是无法替代豆油食用消费的。如果豆油与棕榈油的价差缩小到一定幅度,豆油对棕油的替代将逐渐增大,且价差越小,替代量越大。从2014年6月以来国内豆油与24度棕榈油的FOB价差走势来看,其峰值在150美元 吨左右,谷底在50美元 吨左右,中价区域则在100美元 吨附近,目前豆油与24度棕榈油的FOB价差为56美元 吨左右。笔者认为,如此小的价差,必会使得豆油对棕榈油消费替代增加。   总体而言,笔者认为,当前棕榈油市场面临诸多不利因素,其价格走势或面临较大压力。   (作者单位:德盛期货)   版权声明:本网所有内容,凡来源:“期货日报”的所有文字、图片和音视频资料,版权均属期货日报所有,任何媒体、网站或个人未经本网协议授权不得转载、链接、转贴或以其他方式复制发布 发表。已经本网协议授权的媒体、网站,在下载使用时必须注明"稿件来源:期货日报",违者本网将依法追究责任。相关的主题文章: